Thursday Night: Denver Broncos (-7.5) vs. San Diego Chargers
This game is one of the tougher picks of the weekend. The Broncos are at home, their defense looked scary in last week’s blowout against San Francisco, and of course Peyton Manning always seems to explode in night games. But Denver faces a stingy Chargers pass defense (third in the league in yards allowed per game) and Philip Rivers is an early candidate to win the NFL’s most valuable player award. I want to take the Chargers, but home field advantage means too much on a short week, as home teams are 5-2 on Thursday night games this year.
The pick: Denver 35, San Diego 21
New England Patriots (-6) vs. Chicago Bears
The Patriots, at home, favored by less than a touchdown? It seems too good to be true. New England is without defensive end Chandler Jones who will be sidelined with a hip injury he suffered in last Thursday’s win against the New York Jets. But the Patriots will be getting two starting offensive linemen Dan Connolly and Brian Stork back from injury. The Bears give up nearly 250 passing yards a game (247.6), and I don’t see any way they can handle a finally healthy Rob Gronkowski. One concern if I’m a Patriots fan – Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffery could get loose downfield if the Jones-less pass rush fails to put pressure on Jay Cutler. Also with cornerback Darrelle Revis being sent home for arriving late a team meeting, look to see if there are any punishments from head coach Bill Belichick on gameday. Ultimately, though, I think the Patriots pull it out.
The pick: New England 30, Chicago 21
Jacksonville Jaguars (+6) vs. Miami Dolphins
Ryan Tannehill looked impressive in a road win against Chicago. The Jaguars are, well, the Jaguars. A home win against Cleveland does nothing to elevate their status in my eyes. If Tannehill and the Dolphins are clicking again, things could get ugly. Especially with Jacksonville’s 27th ranked passing offense going up against Miami’s fourth ranked passing defense. Not a great recipe for success in the NFL.
The pick: Miami 28, Jacksonville 10
Carolina Panthers (+5) vs. Seattle Seahawks
Most people have Seattle pegged for a bounce-back win in Carolina, but I’m not convinced. To start, they are a west coast team playing in the dreaded 1 p.m. ET slot. More importantly, I don’t know if the Seahawks are the same team they were last year. It was unthinkable that the 2013 Seahawks would ever lose three games in a row, but that’s exactly what I’m picking them to do. I know Carolina has been nothing special lately, but they still feature a tough front seven that’s as good as any in the NFL.
The Pick: Carolina 20, Seattle 17
Pittsburgh (+3) vs. Indianapolis
Two words: Andrew Luck. The Steelers looked good in a Monday night win against Houston, but benefited greatly from a Texans meltdown right before halftime. The Colts toyed with Cincinnati last week, and feature an underrated defense to compliment one of the best passing games in the league. Meanwhile, Pittsburgh will have to make the switch of defending Ryan Fitzpatrick to defending Luck. Heinz Field is never an easy place to play, but Luck and the Colts should have things under control.
The pick: Indianapolis 30, Pittsburgh 17
Ross Gienieczko can be reached at [email protected] and followed on Twitter @RossGien.
