After last year’s Oscar race, in which “Oppenheimer” proved to be a juggernaut from start to finish, 2025 seems to be taking an entirely different direction. The BAFTAs, SAGs, and Golden Globes have all given us different insights for who the potential victors at this year’s Academy Awards could be. There’s been scandals and smear campaigns. The state of California caught on fire. And I think Timothée Chalamet just compared himself to Michael Jordan?! To parse through this mess, let’s break down each category to see who has the best shot.
Best Picture
“Anora”
“The Brutalist”
“Emilia Pérez”
“I’m Still Here”
“Wicked”
“Conclave”
“Nickel Boys”
“The Substance”
“A Complete Unknown”
“Dune: Part Two”
For a while there it looked like Netflix’s “Emilia Pérez”–the globetrotting musical about a transgender drug lord with a heart of gold–was hurtling towards a victory after it secured a whopping 13 nominations and a Golden Globe win back in January. But the campaign completely imploded after Tweets from the film’s star and Best Actress nominee, Karla Sofia Gascón, resurfaced in which she made racist remarks.
In the very same week, a separate scandal emerged concerning “The Brutalist”–the three and a half hour long saga, which harkens back to an era of American epics like “The Godfather” and “The Deer Hunter,” and its usage of A.I. The film seems most likely to replace “Emilia Pérez’s” spot at number one. Suddenly, what appeared to be a neck and neck race turned into a free-for-all. Some believe “Conclave’s” chances are stronger after its BAFTA victory, but it’s just as likely that the win was less a sign of its Best Picture chances and more an indication that a British voting prefers a film set inside the Vatican as opposed to a strip club. Even “A Complete Unknown” has a puncher’s chance considering its high approval rating since its late-year release. It would certainly provide voters with a comfortable old-school-best-picture-winner feel in such a divisive year.
Personally, I would love to see “Dune: Part Two” receive more serious consideration with the thrilling amount of craft and vision on display in a capital-B blockbuster. The same goes for “Nickel Boys” for its poignant subject matter and inventive formal techniques (essentially what “Emilia Pérez” thinks it’s accomplishing).
But among all this commotion, it seems that “Anora” has emerged as the odds-on favorite. When Sean Baker’s screwball romance took home the prestigious Palme d’Or at Cannes Film Festival back in May of 2024, it set itself up as a strong frontrunner. It’s been a bumpy road since, but with the film securing a win at the Producers Guild Awards (only three PGA winners in the last fifteen years went on to lose Best Picture) and Sean Baker winning at the Directors Guild Awards, the “Anora” train is back on track. Not to mention the film’s charming energy and bevy of strong performances has garnered praise from critics and audiences alike. Even if “Anora” fails to beat out the ostentatious grandeur of “The Brutalist,” the idea of a Best Picture contender being a sex-filled romp about a Brighton Beach stripper is a triumph itself.
PREDICTED WINNER: “Anora”
Best Director
Brady Corbet, “The Brutalist”
Coralie Fargeat, “The Substance”
Jacques Audiard, “Emilia Pérez”
James Mangold, “A Complete Unknown”
Sean Baker, “Anora”
It’s a two-horse race right now between Baker, an indie darling whose work is finally being recognized on the biggest stage after cracking into the mainstream, and Corbet, the frequently self-aggrandizing director who seems a tad too eager to make his mark as a major filmmaker. If we’re confident that “Anora” is winning Best Picture, then Baker is the pick here. After a career of making slight humanist dramas filled with detail, humor, and compassion, a Baker win would feel more than welcome. But it’s tough to deny the craftsmanship of “The Brutalist” and Corbet’s exacting, albeit occasionally overbearing, vision.
As for the rest of the slate: Mangold is a journeyman director whose films always seem to satisfy our entertainment needs without ever touching greatness. But don’t get me wrong, I’d rather see him get rewarded for an adequate production than the pompous work from Audiard and Fargeat; two examples of the Oscars rewarding the most-directed film as opposed to the best. It would have been nice to see a name like Ramell Ross on the list instead; a director with enormous potential who showed sincerity and elegance in equal measure.
PREDICTED WINNER: Sean Baker
Best Actress
Cynthia Erivo, “Wicked”
Demi Moore, “The Substance”
Fernanda Torres, “I’m Still Here”
Karla Sofía Gascón, “Emilia Pérez”
Mikey Madison, “Anora”
Much like the satirical splatter-fest “The Substance,” this race is also about age vs. youth. Mikey Madison’s turn as a brassy stripper was the breakout performance of the year and one of the most transformative, effervescent performances we’ve seen in a while.
But as we all know, the Oscars love a comeback. In her Golden Globe speech, Demi Moore highlighted that in the 45 years she’s been working she’d always been told she was nothing more than “a popcorn actress.” With her cleverly self-reflexive role, the 90s icon finally got a chance to showcase her talent. No matter where you stand on “The Substance,” there’s no questioning that Moore is delivering an audaciously committed performance. And after picking up a SAG win, it feels like everything’s come full circle and the narrative is on her side. Madison did win at the BAFTAs so she may still have a chance, but as of right now Moore’s campaign feels too strong to top.
PREDICTED WINNER: Demi Moore
Best Actor
Adrien Brody, “The Brutalist”
Colman Domingo, “Sing Sing”
Ralph Fiennes, “Conclave”
Sabastian Stan, “The Apprentice”
Timothée Chalamet, “A Complete Unknown”
Yet another head-to-head between an old-timer and a young star, and perhaps the tightest race we have. Brody–who already won an Academy Award in 2002 for “The Pianist”–has won almost every major precursor for his brilliantly embodied performance as a Hungarian architect navigating the pressures of assimilation after fleeing post-war Europe. But just when it seemed like his win was locked up, Timmy scooped up the win at SAG and did so with a speech that makes you wonder if his ascension is undeniable. It’s a close call but I’m guessing that Brody will take this one.
PREDICTED WINNER: Adrien Brody (but it’s close!)
Best Supporting Actor
Edward Norton, “A Complete Unknown”
Guy Pearce, “The Brutalist”
Jeremy Strong, “The Apprentice”
Kieran Culkin, “A Real Pain”
Yuriy Borisov, “Anora”
Culkin has had this award virtually locked up the entire year for his deceptively complex performance which finds the actor leveraging his own fast-talking charisma to mask a deeper suffering. The fact that this race is a done deal is a bit disappointing considering the category is filled with worthy contenders, especially Guy Pearce for his reptilian performance in “The Brutalist.” Yuriy Borisov making the cut is nice to see here. Although, I’d like to think he’s standing in for all the undersung performers in “Anora,” notably Karren Karagulian and Mark Eydelshteyn who are both doing tremendous comedic work. Not a limp category by any means but it’s Culkin’s Oscar to lose.
PREDICTED WINNER: Kieran Culkin
Best Supporting Actress
Ariana Grande, “Wicked”
Felicity Jones, “The Brutalist”
Isabella Rossilini, “Conclave”
Monica Barbaro, “A Complete Unknown”
Zoe Saldaña, “Emilia Pérez”
Saldaña has been the frontrunner for a while now. She has somehow managed to sidestep the controversy surrounding her co-star and I suppose she was the best (if you want to call it that) part of “Emilia Pérez.” This isn’t an incredibly strong category and there doesn’t seem to be any real threat of Saldaña losing this one. There’s a real irony in the fact that Saldaña, who’s struggling vocally to put it nicely, will win for a movie with zero good songs over Barbaro, who’s pulling off a convincing Joan Baez imitation, and Grande, who is… well, good at singing.
PREDICTED WINNER: Zoe Saldaña
Best Original Screenplay
“Anora,” Sean Baker
“A Real Pain,” Jesse Eisenberg
“September 5,” Tim Felhbaum, Moritz Binder, Alex David
“The Brutalist,” Brady Corbet, Mona Fastvold
“The Substance,” Coralie Fargeat
Historically speaking, Best Picture winners usually tend to pick up a screenplay win as well. So it feels like Baker is the pick here. However, Eisenberg did win the BAFTA and Independent Spirit Award in this category so there’s a chance “A Real Pain” could edge out a win. There’s also a world where “The Substance” wins here on account of its loud (more like deafening) social commentary, but we’re going to stick with “Anora.”
PREDICTED WINNER: “Anora”
Best Adapted Screenplay
“A Complete Unknown,” James Mangold, Jay Cocks
“Conclave,” Peter Straughan
“Emilia Pérez,” Jacques Audiard
“Nickel Boys,” Ramell Ross
“Sing Sing,” Clint Bentley, Greg Kwedar
I’d like to think Ramell Ross will manage to get the win here for his thoughtful adaptation of Colson Whitehead’s novel, especially since “Nickel Boys” isn’t likely to be recognized elsewhere. The more likely winner seems to be “Conclave,” a sharp script that explores faith, politics, and how they intersect. It also – and this is the true mark of a good screenplay – lets Stanley Tucci cook. I’d prefer to see the papal thriller win over “Emilia Peréz” which was adapted from a dumpster fire?
PREDICTED WINNER: “Conclave”
Best Film Editing
“Anora,” Sean Baker
“Conclave,” Nick Emerson
“Emilia Peréz,” Juliette Welfing
“The Brutalist,” Dávid Janscó
“Wicked,” Myron Kerstein
If Baker pulls off the win here, he’ll be the first person in Oscar history to win four awards in one night (assuming our other predictions are correct). “Anora” would be a deserving winner but personally I think the hypnotic rhythm of “The Brutalist” is what makes it so palatable despite its daunting runtime.
PREDICTED WINNER: “Anora”
Best Cinematography
“Dune: Part Two,” Greig Fraser
“Emilia Pérez,” Paul Guilhaume
“Maria,” Ed Lachman
“Nosferatu,” Jarin Blaschke
“The Brutalist,” Lol Crawley
A stacked category if there ever was one (although leaving off Jomo Fray for his work in “Nickel Boys” is indefensible). If you’re like me, you’ve watched dozens of YouTube videos where Blaschke and director Robert Eggers break down how they managed to create such a magnificently spell-binding atmosphere in “Nosferatu,” so a win for horror fans would be nice. On the other hand, “The Brutalist,” which proudly touted its use of VistaVision and 70mm film stock, has some of the most gorgeous vistas you’ll ever see. And of course, “Dune: Part Two” has just as many breathtaking landscapes, but Greg Fraiser already won the award for his work on the first film. My best guess here is that Lol Crawley will take home the gold, but keep an eye on Ed Lachman, a veteran cinematographer who could feasibly be recognized for his black and white cinematography in “Maria” after winning an ASC award.
PREDICTED WINNER: “The Brutalist”
Best Original Score
“Emilia Pérez,” Camille, Clément Ducol
“Conclave,” Volker Bertelmann
“The Brutalist,” Daniel Blumberg
“The Wild Robot,” Kris Bowers
“Wicked,” John Powell, Stephen Schwartz
I’m tempted to not pick a winner here, purely out of spite, since the best score of the year wasn’t even nominated. Either the academy voters didn’t see “Challengers,” or they have something against awesomeness. That being said, Daniel Blumberg’s work in “The Brutalist” is dazzling, and a large part of why the movie is so effective; the blaring brass, the sinister keys, the notes of triumph. Who among us didn’t walk out of the theater and immediately add “Overture (Ship)” to their playlist.
PREDICTED WINNER: “The Brutalist”
Luke Walsh can be reached at [email protected].
