When looking back at history, we may notice a pattern, where people often do not expect the worst possible outcome may occur. In World War II, Parisians and other European countries were shocked over the invasion of France, not believing it imminent despite the Germans pushing towards their borders. People believed that the Titanic would not sink to the point that they did not include enough life rafts. Or, more recently, how people ignored the signs of a possible pandemic once COVID-19 cases began popping up.
The phenomenon observed in these moments of history is called normalcy bias, a cognitive bias that leads people to minimize threats. It causes people to be inactive, believing that the tornado the weather reporters are forecasting won’t hit their house, or that they won’t get in an accident while speeding. While you may think that this is uncommon, it is not with 70 percent of people suffering from it during a disaster situation.
At one point or another, each of us has felt this, and some of us—I believe—are experiencing it right now. Problems like bird flu, our country’s current political situation and war overseas may have been in the news in recent weeks but not enough in people’s minds. Most people I talk to believe that the bird flu will not mutate, that Trump won’t ruin democracy and that World War III is not a concern. Normalcy bias often keeps us from panicking but also from taking direct action to prevent these things from happening.
Over the past couple of months, the bird flu has become a pressing concern with record levels of chickens dying, livestock and even pets contracting the virus and humans showing signs of the virus. While our generation has experienced a pandemic and should know the signs, there are still concerns that we may fall into the same patterns we had with COVID-19. Legislators, business-owners and the public failed to act quickly enough, and—with more people choosing to ignore the issue for the time being—it seems like it might be the same case if the virus spreads to humans.
Donald Trump’s presidency and the possibility of a third term is yet another problem people are willfully ignoring. While many believe that the Constitution will prevent a third term from happening, Trump is pressing to add an amendment to subvert this. Although experts are assured that the law will hold up, there is a Republican majority in both houses and on the Supreme court. There is a possibility the amendment could be passed and ratified.
Outside the country, there are bigger issues: war in Ukraine and the occupation of Palestine. Neither of these issues has proper resolutions, especially with the United States halting aid to Ukraine as Russia continues its push over the border. Palestine currently has a ceasefire deal with Israel, but there is little evidence that it will continue or lead to any lasting solution. Both are international conflicts that could lead to larger global issues or another world war.
Admittedly, normalcy bias comes naturally in these situations as it sometimes feels like too much to worry about. As citizens, we can only play small roles in any of these situations. Constantly thinking about the bird flu or wondering what to do about these wars can only lead to halting panic. There’s too much to worry about—so sometimes it feels natural to minimize.
That is why it’s good to strike a balance between normalcy bias and total fear. We need to be aware and follow experts’ advice but know where to draw the line. For bird flu, we still have online resources from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and news outlets that give advice like cooking meat fully and keeping pets inside. If you’re concerned about Trump or a third term, read up about tyranny with different book lists offering advice. In terms of war, organize with local groups, politicians and find ways to let people know you care.
When so many things are happening in the world, it’s easy for normalcy bias to take hold and make you minimize the issue. But if you let it take over, you will be left unprepared and stuck. It’s better to follow the proper steps and take notice. Recognize your fear and do something instead of sticking your head in the sand.
Lily Fitzgerald can be reached at [email protected]
