American politics have been increasingly dominated by discussions of voting gaps. Whether it’s the gender gap, age gap, education or others, recent elections have been decided by who can shrink the right gaps the most. Discussions and gap decreases include Democrats making large enough inroads with rural Americans, and white men and Republicans’ increase in support from Hispanics and Black men.
This election cycle, voters saw a red wave across the country as every state and almost every county shifted red. Polling previous to the election showed an extremely close race with candidates leading all within the margin of error. Following the election, analysts scrambled to piece together the puzzle of who voted for Trump and why.
Trump showed a slight increase in vote total with an additional 2.5 million votes compared to 2020. But Harris had 7.1 million fewer votes than Biden did in 2020. It’s not evident yet if people shifted towards Trump, or if a lot of people that voted for Biden didn’t turnout this cycle.
It is very possible that anger at Trump following his COVID-19 response and the George Floyd protests could have motivated a lot of people to turnout in 2020 that otherwise wouldn’t.
By looking at county results, Trump seemed to make some of his largest increases in support among minority groups. Hispanic majority counties have been shifting red since 2016. Trump increased support among these counties by 13 points compared to 2020. Among majority Black counties, he increased support by three points.
In recent years, there has been a trend of younger Black voters being more conservative than older Black voters. Contrary to the nationwide trend of younger people being more liberal, Black Americans appear to be the opposite.
Trump also saw increases among younger counties, urban counties and educated counties. These characteristics describe the demographics of the typical Democrat voter. Harris failed to hold the support Biden had in 2020, giving Trump just enough of an edge to win every swing state.
Even with these increases, the overall voting landscape remained fairly similar. Exit polls show an eight point difference between men and women. Harris maintained majority support among voters between the ages of 18-40. The only race to give Trump majority support was white voters.
Republicans have become more entrenched as the party with the “working man’s” support. Looking at income, Trump won 51 percent of votes from those earning under $100,000 a year. Harris won 51 percent of those earning more than $100,000.
There was a 24-point urban rural gap with Trump winning over rural Americans as well as suburbanites, as well as a 14-point education gap between those with and without a college degree. Trump won support from 56 percent of those without a college degree.
The election results were a strong indication of the discontent among many Americans within the last four years. Biden had the second lowest average approval rating of any post-World War II president. Ironically, the president with the lowest average approval rating is Trump. But people often vote with a strong recency bias.
Exit polls showed Harris won 92 percent of votes among those who believe the economy is excellent or good, while Trump won 70 percent of the vote among those who believe the economy is not good or poor. 68 percent of voters believe the economy is not good or poor.
Massachusetts, for the second year in a row, had every county vote blue. But even Massachusetts saw a shift towards Trump from 2020. In 2020, Trump won 32 percent of the vote, in 2024 he increased that to 36 percent.
In Hampshire County where the University of Massachusetts Amherst is located, he only made a two percent gain from 2020 to 2024. The town of Amherst gave Harris 88 percent support.
While many students may cast their vote in the areas where they live, Amherst still has a very highly educated population. Over half of Amherst residents have a graduate degree with an additional 20 percent having a bachelors.
Bristol County gave Trump the most support, with 48 percent of the vote going to him, a four percent increase from 2020. An additional 4,000 votes in his favor would have won him the county.
Overall this election showed a widespread red shift with key gains being made among minority communities that have long voted strongly blue. But the overall landscape remained the same and the election was far from a landslide.
Trump did not win 50 percent of the popular vote and had the fifth smallest margin of victory in a presidential race since 1900. 230,000 votes in the right places would have won Harris the election. In 2016 and 2020, less than 80,000 votes could have shifted the remailto:[email protected] of those elections.
Ethan Walz can be reached at [email protected].
