The November 2nd midterm elections are fast approaching, and this year, Massachusetts will see several fierce fights for various offices.

The governor’s race features a tight three-way race pitting Democratic incumbent Deval Patrick against Republican challenger Charlie Baker and Independent Tim Cahill. Green-Rainbow candidate Jill Stein has also attracted some attention. In addition, nine of 10 Congressional races have at least two candidates running this year.

This will be the Collegian’s first look at Massachusetts’ electoral picture this year, with stories focusing on many of these races to come in the weeks leading up to the election.

Governor

The race for the Commonwealth’s executive position is a very heated one this year, promising to be substantially closer and more tightly contested than the 2006 race, which saw current governor Deval Patrick trounce Republican opponent Kerry Healey by a margin of 55.6 to 35.3 percent. This year, four candidates are in the field, although two of them, Patrick and Republican opponent Charlie Baker, a former Massachusetts secretary of health and human services and later CEO of Harvard Pilgrim Health Care, have pulled to the top of the pack.

According to a Sept. 30 poll from Rasmussen Reports, Patrick maintains a slim lead over Baker, with 47 percent of a survey of 750 likely voters saying they would stick with Patrick, and 42 percent favoring Baker. In the Rasmussen survey, six percent of likely voters favored Cahill, while two percent supported another candidate and three percent said they were undecided.

The Rasmussen poll gives Patrick the other hand in other ways.

In the survey, 78 percent of Patrick supporters stated they were certain of how they will vote in the election, compared to 69 percent of Baker voters. Patrick also seems to hold the upper hand in favorability. 55 percent of likely voters viewed him favorably in the sample, with 43 percent holding an unfavorable view of him. This compares to 52 percent of voters having a favorable opinion of Baker and 40 percent viewing him unfavorably.

Some polls, though, have come to other conclusions.

A Sept. 26 poll conducted by the Boston Globe found that Baker was nearly even with Patrick. In the Globe survey of 522 Massachusetts citizens, Patrick clung to a 35 to 34 percent lead over Baker, while Cahill earned 11 percent, Stein claimed four, and 14 percent of voters remained undecided. Baker and Patrick are effectively even in the poll given its margin of error.

Further, the political climate seems to be favoring Baker. Registered Republicans appear much more charged about this electoral cycle than their Democratic counterparts, with 78 percent of Republicans telling the Globe they were excited about this election, compared to just 37 percent of likely Democratic voters.
Another issue Patrick will have to contend with is voters’ opinion of the state’s economy. In the Globe poll, 59 percent of the sample believed jobs and the economy were the most important issues this year. While Patrick and his campaign attempt to make the pitch that his administration has fortified the Bay State’s economy, voters seem skeptical. Forty-one percent of respondents said they were worse off now than a year ago, with just 21 percent telling the Globe they are now better off. In addition, just 40 percent of likely voters said the state is going in the right direction, compared to 50 percent who indicated the Commonwealth is headed the wrong way.

In a state with a large contingent of unregistered voters, Patrick’s standing with Independents is quite poor. The Globe survey found that only 24 percent of Independents view Patrick favorably, with 59 percent of that bracket viewing him unfavorably.

Although this year’s election is different than many in years past with three major candidates on the ballot, it is not quite clear just how Tim Cahill may affect this election.

Among the 11 percent of voters supporting Cahill, Massachusetts’ current treasurer, 39 percent listed Patrick as their second choice, with 35 percent saying they would instead choose Baker.

All of these factors certainly make the 2010 governor’s race a toss-up.

Congressional races

Nine of Massachusetts’ 10 congressional districts have races featuring at least two candidates, with just one district, eight, featuring only one candidate. Locally, nine-term incumbent John Olver is squaring off against Republican Bill Gunn and Independent Michael Engel in District One. Slightly to the south, incumbent and University of Massachusetts faculty member Richard Neal is facing Republicans Jay Fleitman and Tom Wesley.

The first district, which includes all of Berkshire and Franklin counties and parts of Hampshire County, includes West Springfield, Amherst, Belchertown, Fitchburg, Leominster, Southampton, Westhampton and Williamsburg. In 2008, Olver defeated Republican opponent Nathan Bech 72.8 to 27 percent.

Gunn, a Tea Party activist, is running on many of the platforms which have elevated the movement to national prominence, including what his website calls a “renewed reverence for the Constitution.” Gunn also hopes to reduce the sales tax, as well as listing on his site that he would vote to repeal federally-funded health care legislation, his support for the right to bear arms, his opposition to federal bailouts, and his support of allowing farmers to use whatever methods they deem necessary.

Engel, a professor emeritus at Westfield State University and a former select board member in Easthampton, leans much the other way. His site states that he is running because of his concerns about “the unchecked growth of corporate power” and the “transformation of our economy by Wall Street and the big banks into a carnival of speculation.”

In District Two, Richard Neal, presently serving his 11th term, is contending against Republicans Jay Fleitman and Tom Wesley. The political analysis site CQ Politics lists the district as “safe Democratic,” and as of the last federal filing deadline, Neal had raised almost 20 times more funds than either of his opponents.
Fleitman, a Northampton pulmonary doctor, recently won the endorsement of the Springfield Republican.
Fleitman favors many conventional Republican tenets of the conservative doctrine, such as cutting taxes, opposing what his site calls judicial activism, tighter border security, support for the second amendment, opposition to last March’s health care reform bill, and support for charter schools.

Wesley is a former Navy pilot and business executive. His site lists cutting taxes as among his top priorities, as well as reframing how America’s foreign affairs have been prosecuted. Specifically, his site states that he would like to see America employ more special forces and intelligence based operations than ground troops in the War on Terror. Further, he states that he would be tough on immigration reform, and lists prioritizing math and science in education as among his primary goals.

The Collegian will continue to feature more coverage of the 2010 elections until they take place Nov. 2.

Sam Butterfield can be reached at [email protected].