Popular revolution has consumed the Middle East.

From the Mediterranean to the Persian Gulf, the region is witnessing a new period of unprecedented populist, political turmoil. In most cases, these revolts have been cheered on by spectators and supporters in the West and hailed as the beginning of a new chapter in Middle East history.

But nestled south of Saudi Arabia lies an anomaly: Yemen.

Usually described as the poorest and least developed Gulf country, Yemen’s recent outbreak of civil unrest has attracted the attention of U.S. foreign policy experts. The country was also the focus of a lecture held last Thursday by University of Massachusetts alumnus Thomas C. Krajeski, a former U.S. ambassador to the Republic of Yemen, who now serves as the senior vice president of the National Defense University.

The lecture, titled “Yemen: The Next War – How Osama Bin Laden’s ‘Ancestral Homeland’ could become America’s Next Battlefield,” featured Krajeski sharing insight into the geopolitical situation in Yemen and what impact it could have on the U.S.

“I’m not an expert on anything. I’m an FSO [foreign service office] generalist… I’m a practitioner,” Krajeski said at the onset of the lecture, in an attempt to seemingly downplay how much expertise he has on Yemen’s political and social currents.

But Krajeski proved to be adamant in his conviction that “we [the U.S.] want to do everything in our power to avoid a war in Yemen.”

Yemen is structured slightly differently than other Middle Eastern nations fighting for social and political reforms, and many fear that if President Ali Abdullah Saleh is deposed, the country could fall into chaos.

Similar to its neighbors, 80 percent of Yemen’s revenue comes from oil, but the supply of that oil is vanishing rapidly. As Krajeski described, Yemen’s geography doesn’t allow for the kinds of massive, unified oil fields found in Saudi Arabia, Oman or the United Arab Emirates.

And it’s not just oil that’s drying up, the country’s water supply is low, too.

Yemen has the “least water per-capita on the earth,” explained Krajeski. In fact, some assert that certain regions of the nation may run out of water completely within the next decade. Faced with such an apparent catastrophe, the government has explored two options: spending money and oil the nation doesn’t have on desalinizing water from the coast and pumping it up 5,000 feet in elevation, or moving the entire population from the interior foothills and mountains to the coast. As if matters weren’t complicated enough, the country’s 3.1 percent annual population growth rate could prove problematic for solving the nation’s resource issues.

Yemen currently ranks 21 out of 232 in the CIA World Factbook for population growth, with the U.S. ranking 121 with a .95 percent growth rate.

Yemen also has a high illiteracy rate. According to the United Nations, 33 percent of males are illiterate, while almost 60 percent of females are. In Krajeski’s view, these figures contribute directly to the high population growth rate. In his words, “educating women is a game-changer” and that could lead the population growth rate to drop “precipitously, quick.”

It is in the face of these problems that Yemen’s unemployed and disenfranchised have taken to the streets to demand Saleh step down. However, Krajeski doesn’t see these protests as all too threatening to Saleh’s regime.

“Saleh is a deal maker,” Krajeski echoed countless times during the lecture. What he seemed to mean by this is that Saleh came to power because of his ability to broker contextually sensitive agreements with the various tribal leaders ruling the outlying rural provinces – provinces that the central government in the capital of Sana’a has very little direct control over.

It’s for this reason that Saleh has been quoted as saying that ruling the nation is akin to “dancing in a circle of snakes.”

The United States sometimes gives attention and support to Yemen when al-Qaeda of the Arabian Peninsula raises its head. So, as Krajeski explained, “when al-Qaeda is strong [Saleh] gets a pass on corruption.” As a result, the U.S. helps Yemen with financial and logistical support to combat terrorism at times.

But seeing as Krajeski treated Yemen’s plethora of mind boggling problems with diplomatic scrutiny, what is to be made of the decision by the Hashed and Baqil tribes – two of the country’s largest and most influential tribes – to side with anti-government protesters? As Krajeski explained, the decision is meant to say, “We tribes are going to make a deal, and Saleh might not be part of it.” But he cautioned not to “count Saleh out.” When all is said and done, Krajeski believes the political future of Yemen won’t be decided by the protests, but that in the face of such momentous change in the region, no possibility should be overlooked.

In the face of such a bleak outlook and loaded implications, Krajeski included many slides showcasing the country’s abundance of natural and architectural splendor. Standing before a picture of a Dragon’s Blood tree – a species of flora endemic to the island of Socotra, which lies off Yemen’s southern coast – he marveled at the beauty of the island and remarked that “it’s one of the truly magical places left on earth.” He even suggested that if Yemen could stabilize itself, its unique architecture, rich history and distinctive ecology could make it a haven for adventuresome tourists.

Krajeski’s lecture was the latest in the Civic Initiative Speaker Series and was organized with the help of the Political Science Department and Dr. Michael Hannahan in an effort to inspire students through exposure to politicians and diplomats holding high-level positions.

Max Calloway can be reached at [email protected].