In the events of last week, Russia and Chechnya have now made my list of outright political nightmares. I find this a sad dilemma to officially add Russia to this ever-expanding list and, anyone who knows me, knows how I feel about Russia and how reluctant I am to do this. The situation, I believe, is even worse than the Middle East conflict. In my book, at least, there is hope for Israel and Palestine, but from the actions of both Russia and Chechen rebels, I feel that they’re beyond the point of compromise and negotiation. There may not be enough room in Central Asia for the both of them.

On one side, you have Russian aggression fueled by a sense of personal and nationalist vendetta, which is well represented in the actions of their security forces. In the rebel forces, you have aggression fueled by personal vendetta, a radical drive for sovereignty and a Jihad that makes bin Laden look like a pretty nice guy. Looking at this without an idea of the actual tension between the two, we can assume nothing more than a Slavic version of the Middle East conflict, at first glance, but there is a lot more to the problem.

First of all, the Federal Security Bureau (FSB) has the 10-year standing tradition of individual corruption and lack of discipline within its ranks. Chechen separatists often brag that they find it ironic that they can buy guns from the very soldiers that are trying to kill them. Other reports claim that FSB patrolmen accept bribes to cover up for stolen oil, which is sold at dirt-cheap prices, funding rebel efforts.

In Moscow, the Ministry of Internal Affairs fights an uphill battle to add some degree of humaneness to the FSB efforts by incarcerating soldiers and officers for crimes against humanity, which have included rape, assault, and the “disappearance” of innocent civilians in the region. Although I appreciate the effort to bring these people to justice, we all know that no form of punishment will ever undo a crime and it certainly won’t erase it from the minds of eyewitnesses, many of which are young ethnic Chechens.

On the other side of the spectrum, the rebels have a historic reputation terror, which is said to include rape, slavery, torture, kidnapping, and mutilation of not only the FSB, but also civilians. At one point, the rebels had sent pictures of the tortures, killings, and mutilations of Russian POWs to Moscow newspapers. Adding more fuel to the fire, the FSB recently discovered an abandoned rebel hideout claiming that they found the remains of dead women and children in various stages of decomposition in the cave, as well as messages written on the walls of the cave for the FSB to find. One of them became an infamous slogan in Moscow: “Allakh nad nami, a kosli pod nami,” or “God is above us and the goats are below us.” (“Goat,” is a derogatory word to describe a man who has been raped in prison, or a man whose wife has been in the company of other men.)

A few days ago, the Chechen rebels got the upper hand when they came into Moscow, without any subtlety, and managed to make one of the most successful hostage-taking operations that both sides had ever seen.

To my surprise, the terrorists were not as brutal as history made them out to be, but on the other hand, the very action of arriving in Moscow, in numbers, may be the breaking point for Russia.

The fear now is that Russia will retaliate with even more brutality and thoughtlessness than they had in the past, giving the incentive for more brutally on the part of the rebels. As an example to this thoughtlessness, let’s look at the theater situation. FSB officials had moved in and begun executing unconscious captors. However, the captors kept talking about the blood of their people being spilled. The radical act of taking 700 people hostage is not out of an attempt to stop the war; it was another radical attempt at retaliation, and the FSB didn’t exactly help the situation by reacting with their emotions.

Russia’s most natural reaction will obviously be one of rage and vengeance. There will be more bloodshed and more angry boys on the tank-ride down to the North Vietnam of the Caucasus. There will be more incentive to purge anyone they feel paranoid about, and there will definitely be more open brutality toward the rebels or anyone perceived as one. There will also be more foolish people, selling their weapons off for some quick party cash, and there will be more bloodthirsty incentives on the part of the rebels to rid their land of Russians, whether its by gunfire or the intense psychological warfare they’re infamous for.

Furthermore, the Chechen rebels are not unified. They’re a bunch of clans led by warlords, some who probably wouldn’t stop with the FSB. Taking out these terrorists is like firing at bees with a six-shooter. And Russia? Well, their problem is that they are too centralized. Russia’s economy and political system is like a Jenga tower: big, central, and very fragile. Fifty warlords, acting on their personal accord, can do a pretty effective job on Russia’s economy, as it has already begun to do on President Putin’s efforts.

Considering the idealistic notion of people entitled to their own national sovereignty, could Russia hand over a region, the size of New Jersey, to people that are bent on Russian bloodshed, ensuring more organized terror attacks from Chechen loose-cannons?

On the other hand, is Russia’s drive to crush the rebellion, with an undisciplined FSB, committing suicide on social, political, and economic fronts?

Or, better yet, is there a light at the end of the tunnel for everyone?

Mark Ostroff is a Collegian Columnist.

Information for this column was taken from www.moscowtimes.ru and www.kavkaz.org.