Amidst the dreary rain and gray skies encompassing Fenway Park on its season opener loyal Red Sox fans stood, waiting for their first chance to cheer their hometown heroes. But Sox fans were also licking their collective chops, for this was also their first chance to pounce on members of a certain committee who have single-handedly raised blood pressures and the sale of antacids all across New England. Sure enough, as each member of the Red Sox bullpen was introduced, a hail of boos came down almost as hard as the raindrops that were falling from the sky. After their performance during the season opening road trip, Theo Epstein’s closer-by-committee is about as popular among Red Sox fans as Nixon’s Committee to re-elect.
The numbers tell the story on the atrociousness of this bullpen during the early going. Going into Tuesday’s game against Tampa Bay, Chad Fox, Alan Embree, Ramiro Mendoza, Mike Timlin, Bobby Howry, Steve Woodard and Brandon Lyon have pitched 38 innings. In that time they have been tagged for 28 runs (27 earned), a 6.53 ERA, 49 hits and 21 walks. They have two blown saves, while boasting only one save, and have allowed six of nine inherited runners to score. They have given up 13 runs in the 9th inning. Most disturbing is that this was against the bottom of the A.L.- Tampa Bay, Baltimore, Toronto.
The good news is that the Committee will not be pitching quite this bad over the entire season. The bad news is that unless one or two of these guys steps up as a reliable presence at the end of the game – that is, deal with the pressure of close games and can register 20-plus saves – the Red Sox will have a tough time making the playoffs.
Modern day baseball is designed so that having a dominant reliever out of the bullpen is almost vital for a good team. Over the past fifteen years, teams in the World Series routinely have had a dominant, go-to pitcher in the bullpen – Troy Percival, Rob Nen, Mariano Rivera, Jose Mesa, Mark Wohlers, Rick Aguilera, Dennis Eckersley, John Wetteland, Trevor Hoffman and Armando Benitez to name a few.
Since 1990, 19 of the last 24 World Series participants have had closers with 30 or more saves. In 1991 and 1992, the Braves made a point of acquiring a closer in mid-season and went on to make the World Series. The 2001 Diamondbacks and 1997 Indians made the World Series without a dominant bullpen presence, but the Diamondbacks had the two best starters in the game and the Indians won only 86 games during the season. Both teams also experienced significant problems closing games during the Series. This is the way the game is played today.
Having a bullpen without a set closer can be effective usually in one of two cases: 1.) the team has an abundance of talent in the pen or 2.) the team has strong starting pitching, such that the pressure is not always on the bullpen. But any successful team, even ones using closer-by-committee, need a reliable presence at the end of games.
Take a look at other teams who have employed the closer-by-committee. The 1990 Reds didn’t have great starting pitching, but they had three up-and-coming young flamethrowers (Randy Myers, Rob Dibble, Norm Charlton) and they had someone step up as that presence (Myers, with 31 saves). Many teams from the ’70s and early ’80s won pennants and World Series with closer-by-committee, but that was also an era when teams would feature multiple starters who would log 250 innings and throw 10 complete games, which takes a lot of pressure off of the pen and reduces the need for specialty roles and dominant closers. Yet there was always someone they could count on at the end of games that would have 15-20 saves, even if it was someone who time forgot (Roger McDowell- 22 saves for ’86 Mets, Jeff Lahti- 19 saves for the ’85 Cardinals, Jay Howell- 21 saves for the ’88 Dodgers).
Theo Epstein made a smart move in not shelling out $6 million for Ugueth Urbina. Yes, he is 4 for 4 in save opportunities this year, but last year showed that he is not a prime time closer and is certainly not worth $6 million. And with no-one else available, Epstein did not want to be stuck with an overpaid, far from reliable closer and no-one to pitch in front of him. Keep in mind, too, that none of these pitchers have ever worked this sort of system. Indeed, all of them are used to a bullpen anchored by a closer; where roles and expectations are easily defined so someone knows they are the setup man or the situational lefty. It takes time to adjust mentally, and add that to the fact that April is usually a bad month for relievers, and the result is the mess we are seeing.
But this is a collection of decent – not great – role pitchers who are being thrown into a system with no roles and who don’t offer a whole lot of depth. They are going to be asked to pitch a lot of innings because this starting staff is not going to go deep into games. Even when they start to pitch better, games will continue to be lost unless someone emerges as that reliable force that can hold the 2-1, 3-2 9th inning leads. At that point, the others will be able to settle into more stable roles and the bullpen will have more of a cohesive feel.
Is it going to happen? Maybe, but it’s going to take a career-year out of someone. Embree and Mendoza are better pitchers then they are showing, but neither is being used properly. The former is best suited in situational work, facing two or three batters at a time, not closing or pitching full-innings. The latter is to be used sparingly, not appear in half your team’s games, and is more suited for middle/long relief work and maybe 5-7 saves.
Brandon Lyon seems to be a hard-thrower and he could be a surprise, but he is unproven. Fox has good stuff, but his arm is being held together by glue and he really should not be a prominent reliever on any contending team until he proves himself. Howry is on the downside of his career and Woodard is an anonymous journeyman who should be in mop-up duty. Mike Timlin is the most likely candidate – he has experience (he has closed out a deciding World Series game and has had double digits in saves five times) and has been one of the better members of the committee so far. However he is also 37 and it may be asking a little much for him to be a go-to guy in the thick of a pennant race.
The Committee will settle down over the next couple weeks, but if no one takes charge, the Red Sox are going to have trouble competing with the Yankees and A’s, and Theo Epstein and Bill James will have to concede that the talent they brought in may not be good enough to pull off a revolving-door style closer system. It will then be time to try other options like sticking Casey Fossum or Robert Person in the closer role. If there is still no answers come June, it will be time for them to start looking into someone like Kelvim Escobar or Jose Jimenez, and hopefully by that time they will not be too far out of contention.
Sean Holmes is a Collegian Columnist.
