There are at least eight legitimate contenders for the National League pennant this season, and unlike past years, there are no clear-cut favorites. Last week, we looked at the American League, and now we turn our attention to the Senior Circuit:
NL East
1. Atlanta Braves
Key additions – Paul Byrd, Robert Fick, Mike Hampton, Roberto Hernandez, Russ Ortiz
Key losses – Tom Glavine, Wes Helms, Kerry Ligtenberg, Kevin Millwood, Damian Moss, Mike Remlinger
The Braves have won 11 consecutive NL East titles and despite the winter decimation of a once-spectacular starting rotation, expect them to add a 12th. And why shouldn’t we think that? After all, the core of the team (Greg Maddux, John Smoltz, the Joneses) is there. Gary Sheffield and Fick will do their share of damage swinging the bats. Ortiz and Byrd should be solid, and Hampton will be better than last year. Atlanta is still the team to beat in the East.
2. Philadelphia Phillies
Key additions – David Bell, Kevin Millwood, Jim Thome
Key losses – Marlon Anderson, Jeremy Giambi, Doug Glanville, Travis Lee
No one would argue that Philadelphia isn’t improved, but here’s what they did in the off-season. 1) They gave a fat, six-year deal to Thome, a guy with a history of back problems, and 2) overpaid for Bell, a career .256 hitter. On the other hand, signing potential superstar Pat Burrell to a long-term contract and acquiring Millwood for a bag of peanuts were moves that can’t be questioned. But doesn’t this team remind anyone of the 2002 Mets when they added seemingly every name-player available (Roberto Alomar, Pedro Astacio, Jeromy Burnitz, Roger Cedeno, Mo Vaughn)? That worked out splendidly, didn’t it? Call me crazy but I’m just not sold on this team yet.
3. Florida Marlins
Key additions – Todd Hollandsworth, Juan Pierre, Mark Redman, Ivan Rodriguez
Key losses – Charles Johnson, Kevin Millar, Eric Owens, Preston Wilson
The Marlins have arguably the best young starting rotation in the majors, with guys like A.J. Burnett, Josh Beckett and Brad Penny. The additions of Pudge and Pierre give Florida a formidable offensive attack, and look for Derrek Lee to bust out this year. Expect the Marlins to be contenders late into the season.
4. New York Mets
Key additions – David Cone, Cliff Floyd, Tom Glavine, Art Howe, Rey Sanchez, Mike Stanton
Key losses – Edgardo Alfonzo, Jeff D’Amico, Rey Ordonez, Bobby Valentine
In theory, this should be a good team. In theory. Of course, this was supposed to be a good team last season and it wound up in the NL East cellar. Can’t you imagine Howe sitting in the corner of the dugout in mid-June, his face buried in his hands, realizing the Mets are nine games out of first and David Cone is his fourth starter? “I left Oakland for this?” he’ll sigh. Despite having Robbie Alomar and Sanchez in the middle of the infield, the Mets’ defense is atrocious. Alomar should bounce back from a bad year last season, but the team won’t.
5. Montreal Expos
Key additions – Livan Hernandez, Orlando Hernandez, Jeff Liefer
Key losses – Bartolo Colon, Andres Gallaraga, Matt Herges
Last year Montreal was a Cinderella story and stayed in contention for much longer than many of us thought they would. This year reality catches up with them. Harsh, bitter reality. The reality of having the fourth-lowest payroll in the majors. The reality of not having enough pitching to compete this year in the NL East. The reality that Vladimir Guerrero will most likely not be an Expo next year. On the plus side, the Expos get to play 20 games in Puerto Rico this season. Which is nice.
NL Central
1. Houston Astros
Key additions – Jeff Kent, Brian Moehler
Key losses – Shane Reynolds, Tom Gordon, Daryle Ward
Is there a better 3-4-5 in the majors than Bagwell-Berkman-Kent? As Dean from Dean’s Home Furniture would say, “I doubt it!” Playing in the hitter-friendly Minute Maid Park, the Astros will certainly score their fair share of runs. Their pitching is solid as well; Roy Oswalt and Wade Miller form a nasty 1-2 punch and the bullpen is strong with Octavio Dotel and Billy Wagner. They will battle St. Louis for the NL Central crown, but the ‘Stros will come out on top. Expect great seasons from Kent and Oswalt.
2. St. Louis Cardinals (Wild Card)
Key additions – Joe Girardi, Dustin Hermanson, Al Levine, Brett Tomko
Key losses – Andy Benes, Dave Veres
The Cards endured a tragic season last year that culminated with their being smacked around by the Giants in the NLCS. This is still a good team, though, and a return to the playoffs is probable. From top to bottom, St. Louis’ lineup might be the best the NL, and the pitching is more than adequate. They have star players (Albert Pujols, Scott Rolen, Matt Morris) and experience. The Cardinals will be a dangerous team come October.
3. Chicago Cubs
Key additions – Dusty Baker, Shawn Estes, Mark Grudzielanek, Eric Karros, Damian Miller, Mike Remlinger, Dave Veres
Key losses – Todd Hundley, John Lieber, Fred McGriff, Chris Stynes
The Cubs are the trendy pick to win the NL Central this year, and while they are improved from last year, they’re not that good. Sure, their pitching is fine; some might say spectacular. Kerry Wood is an undeniable talent, and Mark Prior might just be the next big thing. But offensively, besides Sammy Sosa, there are questions. Can Moises Alou stay healthy? For the last four years, the answer to that question has been no. Also, rookie Hee Seop Choi’s performance will be a large factor in the Cubs’ success (or lack thereof) this season.
4. Pittsburgh Pirates
Key additions – Jeff D’Amico, Kenny Lofton, Reggie Sanders, Randall Simon, Jeff Suppan
Key losses – Mike Fetters, Sean Lowe, Armando Rios, Ron Villone
Want a sleeper team this season? Pittsburgh might be your team. Believe it or not, the Pirates are not that bad. They have solid everyday position players and good young pitching (Kris Benson and Josh Fogg, in particular). This team is moving, albeit ever so slowly, in the right direction.
5. Cincinnati Reds
Key additions – Great American Ballpark, Felix Heredia, Felipe Lopez, Paul Wilson
Key losses – Cinergy Field, Shawn Estes, Brian Moehler, Todd Walker
Is this finally the year that Ken Griffey, Jr. makes his return to baseball prominence? If spring training is any indicator, it very well may be, but Griffey alone cannot bring the Reds out of their mediocre state. If Danny Graves can pull a Derek Lowe, then Cincy might finish above .500, but that’s asking a lot.
6. Milwaukee Brewers
Nah.
NL West
1. San Francisco Giants
Key additions – Edgardo Alfonzo, Felipe Alou, Jose Cruz, Jr., Ray Durham, Marquis Grissom, Damian Moss
Key losses – Dusty Baker, David Bell, Jeff Kent, Kenny Lofton, Russ Ortiz, Reggie Sanders
Considering the feats that Barry Bonds has accomplished in his career, is hitting .400 this season out of the question? He is surrounded by new faces in the Giants lineup this year, and with good buddy Kent gone, the task of protecting Bonds goes to former Met Edgardo Alfonso and Rich Aurilia. Despite the loss of Kent, the Giants offense is solid. The loss of Ortiz might hurt the pitching some, but Jason Schmidt and Kirk Reuter are still around. If closer Robb Nen can become and stay healthy, San Fran is the team to beat in the West.
2. Arizona Diamondbacks
Key additions – Carlos Baerga, Elmer Dessens
Key losses – Greg Colbrunn, Erubiel Durazo, Mike Fetters, Damian Miller, Todd Stottlemyre
Arizona goes as far as Randy Johnson and Curt Schilling can take them, but it won’t be too far unless the offense puts runs on the board. Remember how the D-Backs’ bats went silent in the playoffs last year after Luis Gonzalez went down? And Gonzo, at 35, isn’t getting any younger. Someone – maybe Danny Bautista – has to pick up t
he slack on the offensive end or this aging team won’t make it to October.
3. Los Angeles Dodgers
Key additions – Fred McGriff, Todd Hundley, Daryle Ward
Key losses – Omar Daal, Marquis Grissom, Mark Grudzielanek, Tyler Houston, Eric Karros
If Kevin Brown and Darren Dreifort are healthy, the Dodgers’ pitching is good. Real good. But that’s a huge “if,” considering Brown has been on the disabled list six times since he came to LA in ’99, and Dreifort missed the past one-and-a-half seasons while having two reconstructive “Tommy John” surgeries on the same elbow. But even without those two, the pitching staff is above average with Hideo Nomo, Odalis Perez and Kaz Ishii (who is rehabilitating from a skull fracture). Shawn Green will again carry a heavy load offensively.
4. Colorado Rockies
Key additions – Ron Belliard, Jose Hernandez, Charles Johnson, Chris Stynes, Preston Wilson
Key losses – Sandy Alomar, Jr., Mike Hampton, Juan Pierre, Todd Zeile
We all know the Rockies will hit, and with a revamped offense, the runs will be many. Fantasy baseball geeks everywhere have been salivating over the idea of Wilson playing at Coors Field, and he won’t disappoint. However, the Rockies have proven in the past that they cannot win at Coors because of their pitching. Last year they finished dead last in pitching, and it doesn’t figure to get any better in 2003.
5. San Diego Padres
Key additions – Mark Loretta, Lou Merloni, Jesse Orosco, Rondell White
Key losses – Deivi Cruz, Damian Jackson, Brett Tomko
No Trevor Hoffman, no Phil Nevin, no hope for the Padres in 2003. They have some nice pitchers in Brian Lawrence, Adam Eaton and Oliver Perez. Ryan Klesko and Mark Kotsay are good hitters. But the season-ending injuries to Hoffman and Nevin are too much for the Padres to even think about crawling out of the West cellar.
Divisional Playoffs
San Francisco over St. Louis
Houston over Atlanta
NLCS
San Francisco over Houston
World Series
San Francisco over Oakland
2003 MVP: Barry Bonds
2003 Cy Young: Roy Oswalt
Jim Crook is a Collegian Columnist.
