Tampa Bay Rays (91-71) vs. Texas Rangers (96-66)
Pitching Matchups
Game 1- Matt Moore (TB) @ CJ Wilson (TEX)
Game 2- James Shields (TB) @ Derek Holland (TEX)
Game 3- Starters TBA
For the second straight season, the Tampa Bay Rays and the Texas Rangers will face off in the first round of the American League Championship Series. Last season, the Rangers upset the Rays in five games, thanks in large part to the wizardry of lefty Cliff Lee.
Despite the Rangers best efforts to retain Lee, he fled for Philadelphia in the offseason. However, Texas has a new lefty ace in the form of C.J. Wilson (2.94 earned run average or ERA, 1.187 walks plus hits per innings pitched or WHIP, 8.3 strikeouts per nine innings or K/9). After Wilson the rotation is in shambles. Rangers manager Ron Washington has Derek Holland penciled in for game two, with either Colby Lewis, Alexi Ogando, or Matt Harrison pitching game three.
Wilson and Holland will start their games at home, which could be problematic for Texas. Their home-away splits:
Wilson
Home- 16 games Started (GS), 102.1 innings pitched (IP), 3.69 ERA, 1.231 WHIP
Away- 18 GS, 121 IP, 2.31 ERA, 1.149 WHIP
Holland
Home- 18 GS, 86.1 IP, 4.69 ERA, 1.569 WHIP
Away- 18 GS, 111.2 IP, 3.39 ERA, 1.191 WHIP
Both pitchers – particularly Holland – have thrived on the road and struggled to some degree at Rangers Ballpark.
Offensively, the Rangers have a myriad of solid hitters at their disposal such as the likes of reigning MVP Josh Hamilton, Michael Young (.338 batting average or BA), Elvis Andrus (37 stolen bases), Mike Napoli (.429 BA/.518 on base percentage or OBP/.843 slugging percentage or SLG in September), Ian Kinsler (32 home runs HR, 7.7 wins above replacement), Adrian Beltre (.561 SLG), and Nelson Cruz (29 HR).
On the other side, the Rays are coming off an improbable streak to the playoffs (they trailed the Red Sox by 9 games with 24 games remaining), waiting until the final day of the regular season to overtake the Red Sox for the final playoff spot.
Tampa was viewed as a team in “rebuilding” mode at the start of the season, but strong pitching and timely hitting have lead to an unprecedented playoff surge.
The Rays greatest strength lies within their pitching staff. James Shields and David Price are the aces of the staff. Shields has bounced back from a terrible 2010 season and pitched at a Cy Young level. He’s thrown a major league leading 11 complete games to go with four shutouts. Price – the team’s ace – will probably not pitch until game three, meaning that rookie phenom Matt Moore gets the nod Friday night.
Joe Maddon’s move to name Moore the starter puzzled some, considering he’s started just one major league game in his career. Combine that and Shields’ dominance of Texas this season (17 IP, one run) and you’ve got a real head-scratcher.
To Maddon’s credit, he’s pushed all the right buttons this season, and Moore is no slouch.
Tampa won’t dazzle offensively, but young players like Evan Longoria, Ben Zobrist, B.J. Upton, and Desmond Jennings have enjoyed solid seasons. Longoria single-handedly saved the Rays’ season, Zobrist is perhaps the most underrated player in baseball, and Upton and Jennings pose a rare blend of power and speed in the outfield.
After the amazing series of events that just unfolded, it’s tough imagining the Rays not finding a way to squeeze by Texas, and continuing their run of unpredictable success.
Prediction: Tampa in 4
Jackson Alexander can be reached for comment at [email protected]
