Massachusetts men’s soccer coach Sam Koch was very blunt about his team’s chances of making the Atlantic 10 tournament heading into the final weekend of the season.
“It’s going to take a little miracle,” he said.
With the Minutemen (5-9-2, 2-5-0 A-10) four points behind Rhode Island for the final playoff spot with two games remaining, Koch’s words appear to be accurate.
Not only does UMass need to win each of its final two games this weekend but it also needs losses from a handful of teams, including the Rams, Duquesne, Butler, St. Bonaventure and LaSalle, all teams that sit in front of the 12th-placed Minutemen with only the top eight teams making the tournament.
However, Koch believes his team still has a realistic shot at making the tournament, and could even finish as high as fifth place if the cards fall their way, which he believes is “not completely far-fetched.”
UMass certainly didn’t help its cause this past weekend after losing a pair of games at Rudd Field, where the Minutemen have been relatively successful, including a crushing, 1-0 defeat in overtime to the Dukes Sunday.
“Obviously if we had won Sunday we would’ve had a real, realistic chance and almost control our own destiny. We would just need two wins and it probably wouldn’t matter what anyone else did,” Koch said. “Now we have to rely on others, which makes it more difficult. But hey, this is why you play the games.”
While it’s no secret UMass needs a tremendous amount of help to make the tournament, Koch knows the help from other teams is meaningless if the Minutemen don’t win both games this weekend, starting Friday at 7 p.m. at Dayton followed by a 1 p.m. match with No. 12 Xavier Sunday.
“The bottom line is we gotta beat Dayton on Friday,” Koch said. “Then we can worry about all that other stuff because if we don’t do our job then it doesn’t matter what else happens.
“We win on Friday then we can see what everyone else does and we’ll see if we have a chance on Sunday.”
Doing its job certainly won’t be an easy task for UMass. Both affairs this weekend are on the road, where the Minutemen are 1-5-1 this season. However, UMass did come out on top in its most recent road game, a 3-0 win over George Washington on Oct. 21.
Unfortunately for the Minutemen, the Flyers and the Musketeers each present much greater challenges than the Colonials, who are already eliminated from postseason contention. UMass hasn’t played either squad since 2010, giving the team limited familiarity to work with.
Dayton’s (9-5-1, 3-3-1 A-10) home dominance this season should make life quite difficult for the road-wary Minutemen. The Flyers have lost just once at the friendly confines of Bajuan Field this season, a 1-0 defeat to Saint Louis Oct. 7, their most recent home outing.
Dayton possesses a pair of key scorers in senior midfielder Daniel Berko and junior forward Abe Keller (20 points each), who could give a UMass defense that has allowed 15 shots per game to its opponents, fits.
Scoring on the Flyers won’t be any easier with freshman goalkeeper Chris Froschauer in net. Foschauer has started every game for Dayton this season, allowing just 23 goals in 15 starts for a 1.51 goals against average.
If the Flyers are expected to be a major challenge for the Minutemen, 12th-ranked Xavier (11-1-4, 4-1-2 A-10) should serve as an even greater test.
The Musketeers have yet to lose a game a home this season, finishing with just one tie in a matchup with Dayton on Oct. 12.
Xavier also has a pair of 20-point scorers in senior forward Luke Spencer (25 points) and junior midfielder Matt Walker (22). The Musketeers also expect to make things difficult for UMass to find the back of the net with senior goalie Justin Marshall, who has started all 16 games for Xavier and has posted a miniscule, 0.96 save percentage.
While Koch certainly recognizes that challenges both teams pose UMass, he’s just fortunate his team still has something worth playing for.
“We still have a shot, which is nice,” he said. “You don’t want to go on this trip with no reason to play.”
And the Minutemen are hoping to make the most of that shot. But for right now, they’re just focused on overcoming the challenges being presented to them.
“Focus on winning with the idea that ‘Hey, we still have a chance,’” Koch said. “The fat lady hasn’t sung yet and it’s pretty bizarre, but we still have a shot.”
Nick Canelas can be reached at [email protected] and followed on Twitter @NickCanelas.
