Week 10 was another successful week of NFL picks, as I finished 3-2 overall and 4-1 against the spread. For those keeping track at home, I’ve been 4-1 against the spread in all three of my predictions this year. Will I ever have a down week? Yes. Probably right now. It’s called regression to the mean. But onto week 11.
Thursday Night: Miami Dolphins (-5.5) vs. Buffalo Bills
I’m having a tough time with this AFC East divisional battle. The Dolphins are banged up and coming off a tough game against the Lions and five and a half points seems a bit much in this situation. On the other hand, the Bills will never escape being the Bills. This has all the makings of a Thursday night stinker, and I have more faith in Buffalo to screw things up somehow than anything else.
The pick: Miami 28, Buffalo 14
Cleveland Browns (-3) vs. Houston Texans
I know most New Englanders thought Ryan Mallett was a cross between Brett Favre and Dan Marino when he was a backup for the Patriots, but I’ve never really seen anything from him. Now, he gets his first chance to start and it comes on the road against a suddenly formidable Browns team. With Cleveland on a hot streak and only laying three points, this is an easy pick for me. The Texans are much improved and J.J. Watt is the defensive player of the year to this point, but the crowd in Cleveland will be rocking for this one. The dog pound is finally back.
The pick: Cleveland 24, Houston 13
Chicago Bears (-3) vs. Minnesota Vikings
How in the world are the Bears favored against anyone? Their past two performances have been some of the worst defensive displays of all time. The Vikings should be foaming at the mouth for this game to start. Coming off two straight wins and rested due to a bye last week, Minnesota sits at 4-5, making this matchup a huge game in terms of their playoff hopes. I think the Vikings will bring the energy Sunday and get someone in the Chicago front office fired. My one worry – this pick feels a little too easy. Could it be a trap? Possibly. Will that change my mind? No.
The pick: Minnesota 31, Chicago 20
Arizona Cardinals (-2) vs. Detroit Lions
Like defense? Tune into this game. Both teams pride themselves in shutting down the run. The Lions and Cardinals are second and third in the league respectively in run defense. It’s tough to pick against Arizona at home, but it goes without saying that Carson Palmer’s season-ending injury last week was huge. I like Detroit and they seem to have moved past its Schwartz-era clumsiness, but they have yet to win an impressive game on the road. I flip-flopped a few times on this one but the return of a healthy Calvin Johnson tipped the scales for me. I’m taking the Lions and hoping they don’t get rattled into silly mistakes by the Arizona crowd.
The pick: Detroit 24, Arizona 20
Indianapolis Colts (-3) vs. New England Patriots
Once again, I’m dumbfounded by a line. The Colts are at home and feature future MVP Andrew Luck, but I don’t know how anyone can pick against the Patriots right now. This is exactly the type of game New England lives for – a matchup against an up-and-coming AFC contender. We’ve seen this scenario play out in recent seasons, and it always seems to end in a Patriots’ blowout. Indianapolis is at home, but it is 27th in the league in passing defense. Does anyone think that will work out for the Colts?
The pick: New England 45, Indianapolis 17
Ross Gienieczko can be reached at [email protected], and can be followed on Twitter @RossGien.
