Thursday Night: Chicago Bears (+3.5) vs. Dallas Cowboys
Both teams are coming off unimpressive showings on Thanksgiving, and this is one of the tougher games on the slate this weekend. Dallas is the obvious choice, and I can’t see any way the Bears can slow down playmakers Demarco Murray or Dez Bryant. But Chicago is an underdog at home and Soldier Field is supposed to be frosty, with temperatures expected to dip into the 20s. Combine that with the Cowboys quest to finish 8-8 every season, and I’ve somehow talked myself into the Bears tonight.
The pick: Chicago 23, Dallas 17
Miami Dolphins (-2.5) vs. Baltimore Ravens
What a crushing defeat for the Ravens last week. They had a chance to be half a game out of the division lead in the AFC north, and in seconds had that turn into a spot on the outside looking at the wild-card standings. The Dolphins are also 7-5, and this game will have huge implications in the wild-card race. I like the Ravens running game against a Miami front seven that was exposed by the Jets on Monday night, and I like Joe Flacco and John Harbaugh over Ryan Tannehill and Joe Philbin.
The pick: Baltimore 26, Miami 14
Washington (+3) vs. St. Louis Rams
At this point, Washington is just a terrible football team. Meanwhile, the Rams are quietly 4-3 in their last seven games with wins against Seattle, San Francisco and Denver. They are a much tougher football team, and I can’t see them rolling over just because they’re on the road. Besides, their 5-7 record leaves them with an outside chance to make the playoffs, making this a must-win for St. Louis. I’ll take the Rams even with a frisky Colt McCoy starting at quarterback for Washington.
The pick: St. Louis 28, Washington 17.
Oakland Raiders (+8) vs. San Francisco 49ers
Poor, poor Oakland. They were taken out to the woodshed last week by the Rams, and are facing a 49ers team that is surely angry after a bad Thanksgiving loss to their arch-rival, the Seattle Seahawks. San Francisco also needs this win to keep their playoff hopes in good standing, and when they are motivated, they are easily good enough to roll over the Raiders.
The pick: San Francisco 30, Oakland 7
San Diego Chargers (+3.5) vs. New England Patriots
The Patriots are 36-4 after a loss since 2003. San Diego is nowhere near the quality of team Green Bay is. I’ll take Tom Brady and Bill Belichick, and think New England will have a strong bounce-back performance. Rob Gronkowski runs wild, and the Patriots walk all over another AFC pseudo-contender.
The pick: New England 42, San Diego 14
Last week: 1-2 overall, 1-2 against the spread
Season: 16-12 overall, 19-9 ATS
Ross Gienieczko can be reached at [email protected] and followed on Twitter @RossGien.
